DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 06Z FRI 14/02 - 00Z SAT 15/02 2003
ISSUED: 13/02 00:27Z
FORECASTER: HAVEN

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THYRENIAN SEA AND VICINITY

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS EXTREME SW IBERIAN PENINSULA AND SEA AREAS

SYNOPSIS

WEST-EAST ORIENTATED ELONGATED UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEDITERRANEAN AREAS REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE. AT FRIDAY 06Z ONE IS CALCULATED NW OF PORTUGAL AND WILL MOVE ALONG PORTUGESE COAST TOWARDS MAROCCO.

DISCUSSION

...THYRENIAN SEA AND VICINITY...
A FEW TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP IVOF AND JUST SOUTH OF UPPER LOW, MAINLY OVER THE THYRENIAN SEA. MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE BETWEEN 0 AND 200 J/KG), QUITE LOW EL'S AND WEAK/ZERO UVM WILL KEEP ACTIVITY VERY ISOLATED. SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR (N-THYRENIAN) TO MOD (S-THYRENIAN) AND WILL POSE NO SEVERE THREAT. SHORTWAVE OVER TUNESIA IS MOVING EAST AND WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE OUTLOOK-AREA.

...EXTREME SW IBERIAN PENINSULA AND SEA AREAS...
OTHER TSTM-ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE FAR SW OF EUROPE AS UVM OCCUR DOWNSTREAM THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE. LOW INSTABILITY AND LOW EL'S WILL STRONGLY REDUCE CHANCE FOR TSTMS, SO ACTIVITY (IF ANY) WILL BE ISOLATED. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT, SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW WINDGUSTS, MOST LIKELY BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

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